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1/ outlook for bitcoin: positive 
in this thread, i'll quickly outline key data points on #bitcoin
sentiment, demand, market structure, and macro conditions
disclosure: i own BTC, obvi. this is not investment advice. DYOR. further disclosures at http://www.coinshares.com
in this thread, i'll quickly outline key data points on #bitcoin
sentiment, demand, market structure, and macro conditionsdisclosure: i own BTC, obvi. this is not investment advice. DYOR. further disclosures at http://www.coinshares.com
2/ let's start w sentiment 
first, investor sentiment:
@blackrock filed to add BTC to 2 funds, CIO has 400k price target
@RayDalio's Bridgewater reportedly issuing BTC research report
JPM, Goldman, and other bulge brackets initiated research coverage
first, investor sentiment:
@blackrock filed to add BTC to 2 funds, CIO has 400k price target @RayDalio's Bridgewater reportedly issuing BTC research reportJPM, Goldman, and other bulge brackets initiated research coverage
3/ next, trader sentiment:
most important indicator is the forward curve
normally BTC futures trade in backwardation after a price drop.
this time, the curve stayed in contango following drop, meaning market makers are bullish
despite funding rate increase!
most important indicator is the forward curve normally BTC futures trade in backwardation after a price drop.
this time, the curve stayed in contango following drop, meaning market makers are bullish
despite funding rate increase!
4/ sentiment drives demand. so DEMAND next.
let's talk fund flows
our research shows $359M of inflows into crypto products last week alone ( https://coinshares.com/research/digital-asset-fund-flows)
our @CoinSharesCo @xbtprovider ETPs saw $200M trading volume on jan 4 https://coinshares.com/news/coinshares-xbt-provider-etps-reach-record-trading-volumes
let's talk fund flows our research shows $359M of inflows into crypto products last week alone ( https://coinshares.com/research/digital-asset-fund-flows) our @CoinSharesCo @xbtprovider ETPs saw $200M trading volume on jan 4 https://coinshares.com/news/coinshares-xbt-provider-etps-reach-record-trading-volumes
4/ let's talk bitcoin fundamentals
post-halving, 900 BTC mined per day, 312,000 this year.
47M millionaires. 21M bitcoin.
collectibles selling at all time highs. bitcoin is the ultimate collector's item. (see https://meltdem.substack.com/p/bitcoin-is-a-collectors-items)
post-halving, 900 BTC mined per day, 312,000 this year.
47M millionaires. 21M bitcoin. collectibles selling at all time highs. bitcoin is the ultimate collector's item. (see https://meltdem.substack.com/p/bitcoin-is-a-collectors-items)
5/ next, market structure (my fave)
@CoinSharesCo traded >$1.5B in first two weeks of 2021. have never seen this level of participation.
spot volumes skyrocketing - BTC/USD trade pair volume has ~7x'ed since August, institutions instead of crypto native firms (who use USDT)
@CoinSharesCo traded >$1.5B in first two weeks of 2021. have never seen this level of participation.
spot volumes skyrocketing - BTC/USD trade pair volume has ~7x'ed since August, institutions instead of crypto native firms (who use USDT)
6/ biggest market structure shift?
trading hours shifting from asia dominance to UK / US hours activity
trade pair dominance shifting from USDT to USD
open interest (OI) on @CMEGroup bitcoin derivs >$1B, break new high
1 + 2 via @KaikoData - https://cdn.shopify.com/s/files/1/1365/1139/files/Kaiko_December_Market_Report.pdf?v=1609429764
trading hours shifting from asia dominance to UK / US hours activity trade pair dominance shifting from USDT to USD open interest (OI) on @CMEGroup bitcoin derivs >$1B, break new high 1 + 2 via @KaikoData - https://cdn.shopify.com/s/files/1/1365/1139/files/Kaiko_December_Market_Report.pdf?v=1609429764
7/ lastly, macro, cuz BTC doesn't exist in a vacuum and everything is relative
dems + yellen to print print print - $2.5T stimmy
unprecedented levels of chaos, mass-scale institutional failure all around
*bitcoin is an antidote to dysfunction* https://finance.yahoo.com/video/bitcoin-antidote-dysfunction-demirors-160830518.html
dems + yellen to print print print - $2.5T stimmy unprecedented levels of chaos, mass-scale institutional failure all around*bitcoin is an antidote to dysfunction* https://finance.yahoo.com/video/bitcoin-antidote-dysfunction-demirors-160830518.html
8/ hopefully that provides perspective into how our team @CoinSharesCo thinks and works.
no price targets. no timelines. we use empirical evidence to build an actionable outlook.
being a #bitcoin bull is great. being a bitcoin bull who brings receipts is even better.
/ fin
no price targets. no timelines. we use empirical evidence to build an actionable outlook.
being a #bitcoin
bull is great. being a bitcoin bull who brings receipts is even better. / fin
