i don't get why people think of elections as probabilities. Like, "Trump had 20 percent chance of winning in 2016." No, he had a 100 percent chance of winning. You were just bad at polling people.

it's a very simple conceptual error - It's on par with the error people make in failing to understand that if a roulette wheel spins red 10 times in a row, there's still a 50% chance it will spin red next. except it's smart people that are making this error in conceptualization.

No matter how many times you wind back the clock to 2016, Trump wins every time. the concept of probabilities makes no sense regarding election outcomes. It reminds me of wall street nerds who blew up their account but think the market is to blame bc their models were perfect